Kell Brook V Terrance Crawford Betting Tips Odds & Prediction
Brook V Crawford Betting
This fight has now been officially confirmed, and it goes down on the 14th of November, and it takes place in the Bubble at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Obviously this fight is for the WBO Welterweight Title, which is held by Terence Crawford.
My initial reaction to the actual fight announcement.It wasn't a fight that was on the tip of everyone's tongues, but at the same time, arguably Kell Brook is the best realistic option for Terence Crawford right now.
So I've got no real problem with this fight, but let's briefly run through the tale of the tape, which I'll start with the champion Terence Crawford. Terence Crawford has a perfect record of 36-0, 27 of those 36 wins coming by way of knockout.
Kell Brook has a record of 39 wins, two defeats. 27 of those 39 wins coming by way of knockout. Terence Crawford is listed as 5'8", with a 74 inch reach, whereas Kell Brook is listed as 5'9" with a 69 inch reach.
So while Kell Brook is an inch taller, Terence Crawford has a significant reach advantage of five inches. Terence Crawford is 33 years old.
Kell Brook is 34 years old. Both guys are a similar age, but in terms of miles on the clock, Terence Crawford is certainly the fresher of the two.
Terence Crawford, while he's naturally an orthodox fighter, he does have the ability to fight out of a southpaw stance, to a pretty good level, to be honest.
He is what you would call a switch-hitter, I guess. And obviously Kell Brook is an orthodox fighter.
Brook V Crawford Prediction
So now we have the tale of the tape out of the way, where do we start? I guess we start with a negative... the elephant in the room... and that is, what version of Kell Brook are we going to get in this fight?
It's worth mentioning that Kell Brook has not made welterweight since May, 2017. That was of course his fight with Errol Spence Jr., In which he lost by a late stoppage. And even back then there was talk of Kell Brook severely struggling to make weight.
Kell Brook has always been a big welterweight, and he's always been a guy who doesn't really live the life outside of a ring. And of course on top of that, he fought at 160 to fight Gennady Golovkin, then he went all the way back down to 147 to fight Errol Spence Jr. And the theories were at the time that, that wasn't good for Kell Brook.
Here we are three years later, once again Kell Brook is going back down to welterweight. So how healthy can we realistically expect Kell Brook?
Is he going to successfully make weight without draining himself? That has to be mentioned as a big factor in this fight, to be honest.
Like I said, even back in the day when Kell Brook was at welterweight, Team Brook... Eddie Hearn and the likes... they were on record in saying that welterweight wasn't easy to make. And that was three and a bit years ago, so now theoretically it could be even harder. So we'll see what happens with that. I guess we can only hope that Kell Brook has a world-class nutritionist onboard, to help him drain down to 147, without being too depleted.
Another factor or red flag in regards to Kell Brook, is the fact that Dominic Ingle is not going to be training him for this fight, and he's not going out to America to take the corner. That's interesting to me. Obviously Kell Brook has been a long-time Ingle fighter... since he was a child basically so for Dominic Ingle not to be there with Kell Brook, to me is a bit of a red flag.
We saw what happened last time Kell Brook left Dominic Ingle, when he fought Michael Zerafa. Kell Brook in that fight looked very average in my opinion, and at times he was struggling. So I wonder who's going to take the corner for Kell Brook going into this fight. We do have to be aware that there are red flags in regards to Kell Brook going into this fight.
But stylistically, can Kell Brook pose Terence Crawford any real problems? I will say, if this was a prime Kell Brook, and we got one last version of Kell Brook at his best for one night, I do believe he would give Terence Crawford problems. Kell Brook just really needs to fight his fight.
He's not going to change his style at this late stage now, so Kell Brook needs to do what he does best, and that is control the distance, maintain both straight punches, and look for the counter-shots. Kell Brook is a very astute counterpuncher on the outside, and at mid-range, in my opinion.
And Terence Crawford stylistically, he does leave openings for a good straight puncher to capitalize on. And Terence Crawford, for as good as he is... One aspect of Terence Crawford that I've always found to be overrated, is his defense. People act like Terence Crawford doesn't get hit. He does. And Kell Brook really needs to be focusing on those straight punches. Terence Crawford, especially from the southpaw stance, when he opens up and throws combinations, he's actually quite wide with his stance, when he throws combinations, a lot of the time Terence Crawford is throwing wider shots, not straight punches.
So a good accurate straight puncher who's quick, if he can time Terence Crawford in between his punches, I think he can have success. And that's what Kell Brook really needs to look out for in this fight. He needs to plot his attacks and basically punch with Terrence Crawford, when Terence Crawford is exchanging throwing combinations. That's where Kell Brook really needs to be on the lookout.
Can Kell Brook win a boxing match at this stage? I don't think so. I don't think he's got the energy to do so for 12 rounds, especially at 147. While Kell Brook does have a great jab, I don't think it's enough to out-box Terence Crawford.
Kell Brook's jab, as good as it is, is fairly one dimensional, and I just don't see Kell Brook maintaining range for 12 rounds, and out-boxing Terence. I think Terence will have far too much energy, far too much activity.
And also, even if Kell Brook starts the flight that way, and he's having success boxing, Terence Crawford is a good adjuster, in my opinion. He'll switch up the tactics and try something else, if something isn't working. We've seen that in a few fights from Terence Crawford.
One fight that springs to mind, is the Gamboa fight, where Gamboa was basically out-boxing Crawford early on. Crawford was trying to box with him, which was a mistake. He realized that, and all of a sudden, he decided to apply more pressure, make the most of his size advantage, and really he beat up Gamboa after that.
So even if Kell has a good start, Terrence is going to find a way to adjust and try something out. So for me, Kell Brook, his best chance in this fight is a puncher's chance. I think Terence Crawford can be hurt. I think he can be hit. Is Kell Brook the guy to expose that? More than likely no. But in my opinion, that is his best chance to catch Terrence, while Terrence is punching, and he needs to make it count. He needs to catch Terence with something big in my opinion, to win this fight. As far as I'm concerned, Kell needs to win by knockout. He needs to play the counterpuncher, and when the opportunities arise, he needs to do his best to take advantage of those, and hurt Terence Crawford.
Like I said, I do believe Terrence can be hurt. Gamboa hurt him, who was a much smaller man. In his last fight, Terence Crawford, he actually got dropped by Edidijus Kavaliauskas.
Now it wasn't counted, but that was a BS call. That was clearly a knockdown. And Terrence was getting caught in that fight, and he got buzzed a couple of times. So who knows? If Kell Brook could time that perfect straight right hands, stranger things have happened in boxing. But that's the extent of Kell Brook's chances in my opinion. He needs to land that perfect counter-shot. Whether he can do it or not, we'll see.
As for Terence Crawford, I would avoid going southpaw in this fight, to be honest. Reduce the effectiveness of Kell Brook's right hand, keep your hands up, utilize that reach advantage, use that jab. Keep Kell Brook on the outside of your shots for the first few rounds. And as Kell Brook starts to tire, which I assume he will do at 147, then go through the gears, apply the pressure, work the body of Kell Brook, and then basically try to drown Kell Brook in the second half of this fight.
So for me, with Crawford, just box safe in the first six rounds, use that jab, counter when you can, let go of your shots when you can, but don't take too many risks... don't get too over exuberant in the first six, seven rounds. After that, like I said, I think Kell Brook will start the tire due to have a weight cut. Brook's stamina at the best of times hasn't been the greatest, so in the second half of this fight, I'm expecting Crawford to apply the pressure, get a bit more aggressive, work that body.
Crawford's actually a really good body puncher when he commits to it, and if he does that in the second half of his flight, I can easily see him getting a stoppage, which in my opinion, is a very likely outcome in this fight.
So going into this fight, if I was a Kell Brook fan, I would be going into this fight with pure hope. Pure hope that Kell Brook can have one more night at his best. If he does, if he can, I think this is going to be a very good fight. I just can't count on that. From what we've seen of Kell Brook in recent years, there's nothing there to indicate that he can beat someone like Terence Crawford at 147. There's nothing we've seen to suggest that he can even make the weight in a relatively healthy manner.
I mean for me, Terence Crawford wins this fight, either by late stoppage or a wide points verdict. I'm leaning towards stoppage... but I'm not entirely sure... but I'm certain that Terence Crawford's going to win this one. For me, Terence Crawford is just too fresh, he's too strong at the weight and just all around a better, more versatile fighter than Kell Brook. So I've got Terence Crawford winning this one, either by a late stoppage, or a wide points verdict. Anyway, share your thoughts below.
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Do you believe that Kell Brook can spring the upset, or like me, are you going with the resounding favorite, Terence Crawford?
The Betting Odds
This seems to be a fight that has really fallen under the radar. I think because Kell Brook has lost twice before and he lost bad. He lost in a way that some people said he quit both times. And on top of that, they were losses, against Golovkin and Errol Spence, where he suffered broken eye sockets as well in each fight, very unlucky. He's 34, he said he was better at 154, now he's come down to 147 again. There's many reasons to believe that this guy is no longer at his best.
But this is certainly a fight you need to pay attention to. Yes, Crawford is the rightful betting oddsfavorite, he is pound for pound. Not pound for pound best for me right now, but he is quality. He can box, counter, he can slug it out with you. He's got spite, he'll take you out if the opportunity's there. He can switch hit. And with all of those abilities, the longer this fight goes, against a kind of stale Kell Brook, you've really got to favor Terence Crawford.
But, Kell Brook, former IBF champ at 147. I think the first real emerging talent at 147 in this modern era, of the likes of Thurman and Spence and Crawford. He's got nothing to lose now. He's no longer with Eddie Hearn, he's a bit of a lone ranger in this fight, and he is going to give it everything. To not just make sure he did better than Amir Khan, but that he is going to really try to win. Some of it doesn't make sense. He said he was better at 154, now he's going back down to 147. But I think he will have taken the weight off intelligently. He's going to show up as strong and as focused as he possibly can at this point in his career.
And in Crawford's last fight against that Kavaliauskas, he didn't look that great. He had to win by kind of just machoing it and outslugging the guy. But he was caught with shots, Kavaliauskas was cagey, got him to open up, pinged him a few times with the right hand. And pinging him with the right hand is exactly what Kell Brook needs to try and do. I think Crawford fights most of the time from southpaw, correct me if I'm wrong, he switches a lot. He at least fought against Kavaliauskas, for the most part, as a southpaw. And that is the stance that will make it easier for Brook to land his chocolate brownie. Errol Spence kind of took the mick out of it in the lead up to their fight, but it is a potent shot.
Brooke does have quite a few flaws as a fighter, he is a bit hittable and stiff. I think the longer the fight goes, it's trouble for him. But he's physically big and strong and he cracks with that shot. He does have very good accuracy. If he manages to get Crawford in one of those perfect positions, 'cause sometimes Crawford, as good as he is, he does so much well, he does wing with his shots a bit when he gets a bit excited. Hyperextension on the elbow when he's going for the hooks. Brook could get there first with one of his crosses.
The real problem though, I feel, is that he would have to spark him out or land many of them because he... I think a good performance for Brook is he hurts Crawford, he even manages to floor him, but the fight is far from over there. Because Crawford has so many layers to his game, if he does get hurt against Brook, he is probably going to get up and just switch it up. His stance is so well balanced, he puts a lot of weight and switches it on the back foot, ready to counter. You can see he's always thinking, "Should I go forward? Should I go back?" He has a great feel, he has great instincts for the ring like Teddy Atlas has noticed. So he's probably going to be able to adapt, even if he does suffer a crisis.
Many people think he's not even going to have a crisis. He's going to move to begin with. He's going to be cautious. He's going to give Brook a look. He's going to switch stances. He's going to get him to commit and he might walk him onto a counter. And at this stage, you really don't know what Brook's punch resistance is like right now. I just hope he can focus his energies and give him as good a fight as is possible with his pretty worn 34 year old body.
It does deserve more attention than it's getting. You never know, if Brook somehow won, it would just completely jumble up welterweight. But I do expect Terrence 'Bud' Crawford to read the Englishman, to find his head, which is a bit open at times with hooks as he comes in, he's not as cagey as Kavaliauskas, and get him out of there rounds eight to nine.